[Ohio UZO News] Ukraine: FT; AP; WSJ; WoE

[Deychak, Orest]

Financial Times

Russia and Ukraine in talks to end gas deadlock

By Roman Olearchyk in Kiev and Isabel Gorst in Moscow 

Published: December 29 2008 14:54 

An energy delegation from Ukraine arrived in Moscow on Monday for last
ditch talks aimed at resolving a gas debt dispute with Russia that could
disrupt the supply of gas to Europe. 

Gazprom, Russia's state controlled gas group, has demanded that Ukraine
settle $2bn of arrears for gas supplies this year or face a cut off in
deliveries from January 1st. 

The ex-Soviet countries are gearing up for a fourth energy standoff in
as many years, but have assured consumers in Europe that supplies will
not be disrupted as happened during a 2006 dispute. 

Officials in Europe, which receives a quarter of its supplies from
Russia and the bulk of this via Ukraine's vast pipeline system, have
urged Moscow and Kiev to find a compromise.

A Gazprom spokesman said talks with Naftogaz, the Ukrainian state gas
company, would begin late on Monday after Gazprom winds up a board of
directors meeting where the debt dispute would be discussed. 

Yuriy Prodan, Ukraine's energy minister, said there was still "hope" the
debt would be settled and an agreement reached before New Years Eve. 

Gazprom said there was a "50:50 chance" that the dispute would be
resolved by the new year. 

The company has warned European buyers that Ukraine might respond to a
supply cut by siphoning gas from transit pipelines. 

But a spokesperson for Naftogaz said Ukraine had stockpiled enough gas
to meet its own needs and ensure a stable supply to Europe "throughout
the winter period." 

Analysts said Ukraine has more leverage than in previous disputes
because Gazprom was in a hurry to clinch supply contracts for 2009
before gas prices fall amid shrinking demand. 

Gazprom appeared open to compromise at the weekend, offering to
restructure Ukraine's debt as pre-payment for gas transit fees or to
take back gas stockpiled in Ukrainian storage facilities. 

Dmitry Medvedev, Russia's president, took a tough line last week,
warning Ukraine to pay its gas debt "to the last rouble," or risk
Russian economic sanctions. 

Associated Press

EU Ukraine Blast; 27 dead in Ukraine blast, more survivors unlikely 

28 December 2008

19:07

KIEV, Ukraine (AP) - Rescue workers were combing through piles of
concrete and glass in an ongoing search for survivors from an apartment
building explosion in southern Ukraine, but authorities said hope was
waning as the death toll climbed to 27.

Salvage teams had pulled 21 people out alive from the rubble by Friday
night, two days after the five-story building collapsed in the Crimean
peninsula resort of Yevpatoriya.

It was unclear if other victims could still be buried in the wreckage.
Authorities said 62 people were registered as living in the destroyed
apartments, but could not say how many were in the building when the
blast occurred Wednesday night.

Ukraine held a day of national mourning Friday, with flags across the
country lowered to half-mast. Entertainment events were canceled.

Rescuers were using a construction crane to remove larger concrete
blocks from the site, and were falling silent intermittently to listen
for any cries of help.

Television footage showed rescuers on Thursday pulling out a man, awake
and alert but with bruises on his face, as rescue colleagues applauded.

But finding others alive after two nights of temperatures at minus 6
degrees Celsius (21 degrees Fahrenheit) was increasingly unlikely, said
spokesman Volodymyr Ivanov of the Crimean branch of the Emergency
Situations Ministry.

"There is very little hope," he said.

The explosion caused the entire central section of the building to come
down, exposing apartments on either side. As of Friday evening, 27
bodies had been recovered, including two children, officials said.

Officials were considering several causes for the blast, including the
explosion of oxygen canisters in the basement, Ivanov said. Neglect of
safety precautions has led to frequent explosions in apartment buildings
and public facilities in the ex-Soviet nations.

Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia
Tymoshenko were in Yevpatoriya on Thursday to inspect rescue efforts and
talk to survivors. Tymoshenko said survivors would be given free housing
before year's end.

Yushchenko thanked Russia for offering to send naval personnel to help
with the rescue, but said they were not needed.

Russia's NTV television reported that the remnants of the building would
soon be torn down due to safety concerns.

"We renovated the whole place, we installed new windows, and to leave it
all?" resident Ivan Velnus said, struggling to hold back tears.

The Wall Street Journal

Black Sea Region Wheat Exports Surge --- Russia, Ukraine Edge U.S.
Farmers With Lower Prices, Bumper Crops 

By Tom Polansek 

29 December 2008

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CHICAGO -- The Black Sea region has muscled its way into the exclusive
club of the world's top wheat exporters and is expected to continue
stealing business away from its most prominent member, the U.S.

The U.S. won't lose the title of world's biggest wheat exporter, but
countries such as Ukraine and Russia are expanding their influence on
the world market, analysts said. The region is now one of the top-five
world exporters, a group formerly limited to the U.S., Canada, the
European Union, Australia and Argentina.

The U.S.'s share of the world export market already has declined amid
stiffer competition from the Black Sea region, where farmers have
benefited from low production costs and continued investments in the
agricultural sector, analysts said. More market share may fall away.

"I think Russia and Ukraine will raise their share in wheat exports and
the U.S. will decrease its share in world wheat trade," said Rudolf
Bulavin, head of the analytical division at the Coordinating Analytic
Centre of Agriculture Sector, in Russia.

In 2008, favorable weather lead to bumper crops in Ukraine and Russia,
where production is expected to climb nearly 28% from last year to a
record 63 million metric tons, according to the Agriculture Department.
The countries flooded the global market with cheap wheat and have
elbowed out pricier U.S. wheat for sales to price-conscious buyers.

Wheat produced in Ukraine and Russia is generally of lower quality than
U.S. wheat, but it still usually meets the minimum standards of
price-conscious exporters, analysts said. "As long as [Black Sea
exporters] have wheat that they're willing to discount and the quality
is acceptable from a milling standpoint, it's going to continue to be a
problem for the U.S. exporter," said Shawn McCambridge, analyst for
Prudential Bache <javascript:void(0);> .

Egypt, for example, is a major buyer on the world wheat market that is
known to be price-sensitive. Asian buyers such as Japan and Taiwan, by
comparison, are more concerned about quality than price, analysts said.

The U.S. in 2008 is projected to export about 27 million tons of wheat,
accounting for 22% of world exports, according to the USDA. That is down
from about 27% a decade ago. Exports from 12 countries in the former
Soviet Union are projected to account for about 23% of the world's wheat
exports this year, up from 3.4% in 1998, the USDA said.

Russia alone is forecast to export more wheat than Australia and
Argentina, typically the powerhouses of the Southern Hemisphere, though
they have been hurt by drought. Russia's exports are estimated at 14
million tons, compared with 13 million from Australia and 5.3 million
from Argentina, according to the USDA.

The Russian government has said it plans to subsidize grain exports in
2009 to prevent excess supplies from depressing local prices, according
to reports. Ukraine, meanwhile, is expected to export nine million tons
of wheat in 2008, up from 1.24 million in 2007, when hot, dry weather
slashed output.

"Unless we still have a [weather] problem with Russia [or] Ukraine . . .
then you have to state that Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan will be a major
influence in the export market for years to come," said James
Dunsterville, analyst at AgriNews, of Geneva.

A "significant recapitalization of agriculture" in the three countries
in the past three to five years has brought professional crop-management
practices and outside capital to Black Sea farms, said Bill Tierney,
head North American research analyst for LMC International, a global
agricultural analysis firm. The changes have had a marked effect on
wheat production, with yields doubling in some areas, he said.

The modernization of the industry will likely slow because of the global
economic downturn, Mr. Tierney said. However, improved management
practices have proven themselves and shown farmers they must spend money
to make money, he said.

As a result, the Black Sea region will remain a "real thorn in the side
of the U.S. wheat exporter over the next decade and beyond," said Rich
Feltes, senior vice president for research at MF Global
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Still, despite the Black Sea region's growing role in the world wheat
market, production and export potential can swing greatly from year to
year because of unpredictable weather. The winter wheat crop now in the
ground looks fine heading into winter, but Mr. Dunsterville cautioned
"we've got a long way to go" before harvest in the summer.

Even if production falls next year, the Black Sea may be able to
maintain its expanded market share because wheat production is expected
to fall world-wide, Mr. Tierney said. A decline in world wheat prices
from record highs hit this year has reduced the incentive for farmers to
plant wheat.

Window on Eurasia: Another 'Unrecognized Republic' is Born - This Time
in Ukraine

 

Paul Goble

 

            Vienna, December 24 - The Transcarpathian Rusins
(Ruthenians), who are estimated to number more than a million, are
calling on Moscow to recognize the independence of Subcarpathian Rus
because Kyiv has ignored their demands for autonomy within Ukraine, an
appeal that could create yet another "unrecognized" republic in the
former Soviet space.

            That appeal, which was given prominence two days ago when
Petr Getsko, the self-proclaimed prime minister of the self-proclaimed
republic, gave an interview to the Russian government newspaper,
"Rossiiskaya gazeta (www.rg.ru/2008/12/22/reg-jugrossii/294676.html), in
fact has deeper roots. 

            On the one hand, there has been a resurgence of Ruthenian
activism across eastern Europe, with most countries in the region
providing some support to what is the fourth largest East Slavic group
in the world. And on the other, Kyiv has infuriated many Rusins by
refusing to acknowledge them as a separate nation, anger that Moscow has
clearly sought to tap into.

            The current Ruthenian campaign for greater rights began at
the end of October when the Second European Congress of Ruthenians met
in Mukachevo and formally demanded that Kyiv grant them the status of an
autonomous republic before December 1.  If that did not happen, the
participants said, they would see national self-determination outside of
Ukraine.

            December 1 came and went, but on December 19, an
international scientific practical conference on "Genocide and Cultural
Ethnocide of the Rusins of Carpathian Rus (the end of the 19th Century
to the Beginning of the 21st Century) assembled in Rostov-na-Donu and
adopted a resolution on the Ruthenian cause
(www.fondsk.ru/article.php?id=1819).

            Among the resolution's key points was an insistence that
alongside the Armenians, the Ruthenians were the victims of the first
genocide of the 20th century, one carried out by the Austro-Hungarians.
Today, the resolution continued, Kyiv is extending this through "a
policy of cultural ethnocide."

            In addition, the resolution insisted that the Ruthenians are
recognized as a unique people in all countries of the region except
Ukraine and that they enjoy the support of international organizations
like the UN whose committee on the liquidation of racial discrimination
in August 2006 criticized Kyiv for not supporting them.

            And the resolution specified that the status of the
Transcarpathian Ruthenians has not yet been defined - Kyiv has not yet
recognized the 1946 treaty which incorporated them into the Soviet Union
- and that the Ukrainian government continues to ignore the December
1991 referendum in which Ruthenians voted for autonomy as well as for
Ukrainian independence. 

            Eduard Popov, a Russian expert on Ukraine, subsequently
argued that "Subcarpathian Rus has experience as an independent
government and an autonomous republic" and thus has the historical basis
for demanding recognition either from Kyiv or the international
community (forum.msk.ru/material/news/667924.html).

            And because of both that history and the higher status
Ruthenians have received elsewhere, Popov continued, the refusal of the
Ukrainian government to recognize them as a separate nationality and to
offer courses in their distinctive language are increasingly offensive -
all the more so since the ethnonym "Rusin" is much older than the one
for Ukrainian.

            At least some observers in Moscow dismiss the current
Ruthenian cause as nothing more than the babblings of a few
underemployed academics and any Russian government interest in them as a
foolish policy that will infuriate the Ukrainian government and do
little or nothing to advance Moscow's interest in the region. 

            But however that may be, the Rusins of Ukraine are pressing
ahead, and at least those who have taken part in these recent meetings
believe that they have both a good case as a nationality whose interests
have been ignored and a geographic advantage that makes them an even
better candidate for Russian support than other "unrecognized" states
have.

            "Prime Minister" Getsko told "Rossiiskaya gazeta" that "we
have sought autonomy for a long time and have appealed to the
authorities of the country almost every month during recent years. But
nothing came of this, and now we will seek independence" and
international recognition.

            Moreover, he pointedly told the paper in the kind of
language the Russian government and business elite are certain to
understand, "the lion's share" of Russian gas on its way to European
markets flows through Subcarpathian Rus, "twice more than through the
Baltic states and twice more than through other neighboring countries."

 

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