[Ohio UZO News] Ukraine: WSJ; FT; CSCE notices

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Russia's Next Target Could Be Ukraine 

By Leon Aron 

10 September 2008

A15

 

Perhaps the most urgent question in the world affairs today is whether Russia's invasion and continuing occupation of Georgia was a singular event. Or was it the onset of a distinct, and profoundly disturbing, national security and foreign policy agenda?

Much as one would like to cling to the former theory, the evidence favors the latter. A European delegation led by French President Nicolas Sarkozy did manage this week to get assurances that Russian troops would withdraw from Georgia (excepting Abkhazia and South Ossetia, whose independence Moscow says is "irrevocable"). But ultimately, this short war is likely to be remembered as the beginning of a decisive shift in Russia's national priorities. The most compelling of these new priorities today seems to be recovery of the assets lost in the Soviet Union's collapse in 1991, which Vladimir Putin has called the "greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century."

How does Russia achieve this goal? By dominating the domestic politics and, more importantly, economic- and foreign-policy orientation, of the former Soviet republics. Anything considered antithetical to Russia's interests, as interpreted by the current Kremlin leadership, must be discarded -- be it democratization, oil and gas exports that bypass Russia, and, especially, the membership in the Western organizations such as the European Union and NATO. And if, in the process, Russia must sacrifice most or even all of the fruits of the post-Soviet rapprochement with the West -- including membership in the G-8, entry to the World Trade Organization or ties to the EU -- so be it.

Russia's "targets of opportunity" include simmering border disputes (and virtually all Russia's borders with newly independent states could be disputed, since they are but the very badly demarcated internal borders of the Soviet Union), and the presence of the ethnic Russian or Russian-speaking minorities in neighboring countries.

Apart from Estonia and Latvia -- where ethnic Russians constitute over a quarter of the population, but where NATO membership raises the risk for the Kremlin -- by far the most likely target is Ukraine. Kiev has repeatedly defied and angered Russia by the domestic politics of democratization, a decidedly pro-Western orientation, and the eagerness of its leadership to join NATO. Nearly one in five Ukraine citizens are ethnically Russian (a total of almost eight million) and live mostly in the country's northeast, adjacent to the Russian border.

Mr. Putin has made his contempt for Ukrainian sovereignty clear, most notably at the NATO summit in Bucharest last April when, according to numerous reports in the Russian and Ukrainian press, he told President Bush that the Ukraine is "not even a real state," that much of its territory was "given away" by Russia, and that it would "cease to exist as a state" if it dared join NATO. Clearly, Vice President Cheney's trip to Ukraine this past weekend, where he expressed America's "deep commitment" to this "democratic nation" and its "right" to join NATO, was intended as a message to Moscow.

Still, there is no better place to cause a political crisis in Ukraine and force a change in the country's leadership, already locked in a bitter internecine struggle, than the Crimean peninsula. It was wrestled by Catherine the Great from the Ottoman Turks at the end of the 18th century. Less than a quarter of the Crimeans are ethnic Ukrainians, while Russians make up over half the inhabitants (the pro-Ukrainian Crimean Tatars, one-fifth).

Ever since the 1997 Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation between Russia and Ukraine, signed by President Boris Yeltsin and Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma, a solid majority of the Russian parliament has opposed the recognition of the Crimea as Ukrainian territory. Russian nationalists have been especially adamant about the city of Sevastopol, the base for Russia's Black Sea fleet and the site of some of the most spectacular feats of Russian military valor and sacrifice in World War II and the Crimean War of 1854-55.

Nationalist politicians, including Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov, have repeatedly traveled to Crimea to show the flag and support the Russian irredentists -- many of them retired Russian military officers who periodically mount raucous demonstrations. In 2006, their protests forced the cancellation of the joint Ukraine-NATO Sea Breeze military exercises. Sevastopol was and should again be a Russian city," Mr. Luzhkov declared this past May, and the Moscow City Hall has appropriated $34 million for "the support of compatriots abroad" over the next three years. On Sept. 5, Ukraine's Foreign Minister Vladimir Ogryzko accused the Russian consulate in the Crimean capital of Simferopol of distributing Russian passports to the inhabitants of the peninsula.

With almost three-quarters of Sevastopol's 340,000 residents ethnically Russian, and 14,000 Russian Navy personnel already "on the inside" (they've been known to don civilian clothes and participate in demonstrations by Russian Crimean irredentists), an early morning operation in which the Ukrainian mayor and officials are deposed and arrested and the Russian flag hoisted over the city should not be especially hard to accomplish. Once established, Russian sovereignty over Sevastopol would be impossible to reverse without a large-scale war, which Ukraine will be most reluctant to initiate and its Western supporters would strongly discourage.

A potentially bolder (and likely bloodier) scenario might involve a provocation by the Moscow-funded, and perhaps armed, Russian nationalists (or the Russian special forces, spetznaz, posing as irredentists). They could declare Russian sovereignty over a smaller city (Alushta, Evpatoria, Anapa) or a stretch of inland territory. In response, Ukrainian armed forces based in the Crimea outside Sevastopol would likely counterattack. The ensuing bloodshed would provide Moscow with the interventionist excuse of protecting its compatriots -- this time, unlike in South Ossetia, ethnic Russians.

Whatever the operational specifics, the Russian political barometer seems to augur storms ahead.

Financial Times

EU's rebuff for Ukraine sours summit

By Tony Barber in Paris 

Published: September 10 2008 

The European Union yesterday declined to offer Ukraine a clear path to EU membership, frustrating Ukrainian officials who said the bloc had thrown away a golden opportunity to stabilise its eastern frontier and encourage political and economic reform in Kiev.

A communiqué issued at an EU-Ukrainian summit set out a framework for closer ties between Kiev and the 27-nation bloc, but omitted the crucial words "membership perspective" to describe Ukraine's future relationship with the EU.

Ukraine, a country of 46m people wedged between the EU and Russia, had hoped that Moscow's military assault on Georgia last month, and its subsequent attempt to partition the former Soviet republic, might prompt the EU to go the extra mile.

The communiqué affirmed the EU's commitment to Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and held out the prospect of agreements on free trade and easier travel for Ukrainians to EU countries, but stopped short of a promise of EU accession.

"Be clear that this agreement shuts no door, and maybe it opens some doors. This is the most we could offer, but I believe it to be a substantial step," Nicolas Sarkozy, France's president, told reporters.

Diplomats said Germany and the Netherlands, and to a lesser extent Belgium, were the most reluctant to state clearly that Ukraine could one day join the EU.

The three Baltic states, the Czech Republic, Poland, Sweden and the UK all sympathised with Kiev's aspirations while recognising that accession was not an immediate possibility.

France, which holds the EU's rotating presidency, appreciated the need to send positive signals to Kiev, but was unwilling to make a strong commitment to Ukraine without a shift in the German and Dutch positions, diplomats said.

Ukraine did its cause little good last week when the ruling coalition split in acrimony, enhancing the nation's reputation for political instability.

For now, Ukraine will have to make do with an "association agreement" with the EU - a pact that for Balkan countries such as Albania, Macedonia and Serbia represents the first step on the path to membership, but for Ukraine carries no such implications.

The association agreement is expected to be ready in about a year, and President Viktor Yushchenko said yesterday he looked forward to signing it. "We've made remarkable progress over the past 12 months," he said, making it clear he had not abandoned hope Ukraine could eventually join the EU.

But some Ukrainian officials said their government might be wary of signing the association accord lest this be interpreted as Kiev's formal acceptance of a status falling permanently short of membership.

EU officials put a positive gloss on yesterday's summit, stressing the communiqué did not explicitly exclude EU accession. But Ukraine fears support for Kiev's aspirations may fade if the crisis in Georgia calms down.

 

The following hearings are open to the press and public, no RSVP necessary.  Feel free to contact me if you need more information, or see our website:  www.csce.gov

 

Helsinki Commission to Hold Hearing on Russia's Armed Intervention into Georgia 

 

(Washington, D.C.) Congressman Alcee L. Hastings (D-FL) and Senator Benjamin L. Cardin (D-MD), Co-Chairmen of the Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe (U.S. Helsinki Commission), will hold a hearing entitled, "Russia, Georgia, and the Return of Power Politics," on Wednesday, September 10 at 1:30 p.m. in room 2325 of the Rayburn House Office Building.  

 

The hearing will examine Russia's recent armed intervention into Georgia, the implications for U.S.-Russian relations, and for the European security infrastructure.  Last month, Russia invaded Georgia after the Georgian government tried to reassert control of separatist South Ossetia.  Russia's large-scale assault on Georgia and subsequent unilateral recognition of the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia has drawn deep condemnation from the West and broader international community.  

 

WITNESSES

 

Mr. Matthew J. Bryza, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, Department of State

 

The Honorable David Bakradze, Speaker of the Parliament of Georgia and Former Foreign Minister 

 

Mr. Paul A. Goble, Director of research and publications at the Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy in Baku

 

Mr. Paul Saunders, Executive Director, the Nixon Center

 

 

Helsinki Commission to Hold Hearing on Upcoming Elections in Belarus 

 

(Washington, D.C.) Congressman Alcee L. Hastings (D-FL) and Senator Benjamin L. Cardin (D-MD), Co-Chairmen of the Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe (U.S. Helsinki Commission), will hold a hearing entitled, "Business as Usual?  Belarus on the Eve of Elections," on Tuesday, September 16 at 2:30 p.m. in room B-318 of the Rayburn House Office Building.  The hearing will examine the state of democracy and human rights in Belarus and how the Belarusian authorities are complying with their election commitments to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), in advance of the September 28 parliamentary elections.

 

Last month, authorities released Belarus' most prominent political prisoner, Alexander Kozulin, and two others, fulfilling a key demand of the United States and European Union.  This, together with Belarusian leader Lukashenka's unenthusiastic response to Russia's aggression in Georgia also has raised a glimmer of possibility for an improvement in Belarus' ties with the United States and European Union.  Nevertheless, to date, there has been no appreciable progress in human rights and democracy in the run up to the elections.

 

WITNESSES

 

The Honorable David J. Kramer, Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights and Labor

 

Mr. Stephen B. Nix, Regional Program Director, Eurasia, International Republican Institute

 

Ms. Laura Jewett, Regional Director, Eurasia, National Democratic Institute for International Affairs

 

Mr. Rodger Potocki, Director, Europe and Eurasia, National Endowment for Democracy

 

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