[Ohio UZO News] Ukraine: Economist; KP; AP; WSJ; FT; EDM

[Deychak, Orest]

The Economist

Russia's western neighbours

Ukraine comes to the forefront 

Sep 11th 2008 
>From The Economist print edition


An already fragile Ukraine has been made a lot more nervous by Russia's
war with Georgia-and it is not alone

THE first priority for Europe after Russia's short August war with
Georgia was to secure a ceasefire and a genuine pullback of Russian
forces. The second was to start fretting about Russia's other
neighbours. And the most significant of these by far is Ukraine. 

Ukraine could not have ignored the war even if it had wanted to.
Sebastopol, on the Crimean peninsula, is home to Russia's Black Sea
fleet, some of whose warships dropped anchor off the Georgian coast
during and after the fighting. Evidence of Ukraine's proximity to the
conflict is also on show at Moscow's military museum, where visitors can
gawp at war booty: Georgian T-72 battle tanks that were modernised in
Ukraine. This, say the Russians, shows Kiev's support for what it sees
as a "criminal regime". Indeed, Viktor Yushchenko, Ukraine's president
(pictured above) flew to Tbilisi to support his counterpart and friend,
Mikheil Saakashvili.

Add to this the fact that Russian nationalists believe Crimea, which has
a large ethnic Russian population, should be returned to Russia (there
are rumours of new Russian passports being handed out, just as happened
in South Ossetia and Abkhazia). Throw in, too, the fact that Ukraine,
like Georgia, has for years been trying to secure a place in both the
European Union and NATO. The inevitability of Ukraine catching a
post-war cold becomes clear.

Ukraine's always anarchic politics have been directly shaken up by the
war. The usually pro-Western government led by Yulia Tymoshenko, the
prime minister, is unravelling. The first cracks emerged when Ms
Tymoshenko blocked a parliamentary motion to condemn Russia's
aggression. She also resisted Mr Yushchenko's attempts to impose
restrictions on the Black Sea fleet, accusing him of populism ahead of a
presidential election in 2010 that both will contest. But it was her
decision to join, temporarily, with the pro-Russian Party of the
Regions, led by Viktor Yanukovich, so as to push through legislation
diluting presidential authority, that incensed Mr Yushchenko, who
promptly pulled his own Our Ukraine party out of its coalition with the
Tymoshenko block.

Mr Yushchenko claimed that Ms Tymoshenko had formed a de facto rival
coalition with Mr Yanukovich's party. Ms Tymoshenko urged him to
reconsider and "save" a political partnership that burst on to the world
stage in the Kiev snow in the 2004 "orange revolution". Both went on
television to put their case, evidence (said some) that their relations
had become so sour that they could no longer bear to sit down and talk
to one another.

Even by Ukrainian standards, the recriminations have got out of hand. Mr
Yushchenko accused Ms Tymoshenko of "high treason", suggesting she was a
Kremlin agent out to win Moscow's support (and financial backing) for
her presidential bid. Even as she begged his party to rejoin the
coalition, she poured scorn on him, poking fun at his abysmal popularity
ratings. (One poll gave him 5%, against 22.5% for her.) Yet Ms
Tymoshenko is no Russian stooge. She says her muted response to the
Georgian war is motivated by a desire to guarantee Ukraine's territorial
integrity-without inflaming relations with Russia.

Ukraine faces three political options: a fresh parliamentary election, a
face-saving truce between Mr Yushchenko and Ms Tymoshenko or a new
coalition between Ms Tymoshenko and Mr Yanukovich. America's
vice-president, Dick Cheney, made his preference abundantly clear on his
recent whistle-stop tour of Baku, Tbilisi, Kiev and Rome by calling for
orange unity. He said that Ukraine should be "united domestically first
and foremost, and united with other democracies." He reiterated that the
Bush administration backed Ukraine's NATO aspirations, angering Mr
Yanukovich, who pointed out that a majority of Ukrainians are against
joining. 

At a European Union-Ukraine summit in Paris on September 9th, the EU too
had little beside warm words of support to offer. The "maximum" it could
do, said France's Nicolas Sarkozy, was to offer to sign a vague
"association agreement" next year. But unlike similar-sounding
agreements for the Balkan countries, this one would not carry any
implication of eventual membership. Countries such as Belgium, the
Netherlands and Germany are unwilling at this stage even to hint at
candidate status for Ukraine.

The Russians have been publicly silent about Ukraine in recent weeks,
knowing that they hold some strong cards, besides having just defeated
Georgia. Ukraine is almost entirely dependent on Russia for its oil and
gas, for uranium enrichment, and as a market in which it can sell its
own goods. It may agonise about its east-west choice, but in reality it
will have to maintain reasonable relations with Moscow as well as the
rest of Europe.

The Georgian war is reverberating among Russia's other western
neighbours. The Baltics, already in both the EU and NATO, are still
wary. Belarus, Europe's "last dictatorship", is trying to use the war to
thaw its frosty relationship with the West. Resisting Russian pressure
to recognise South Ossetia and Abkhazia immediately, Belarus's
president, Alyaksandr Lukashenka, said he would let a new parliament
decide the matter, after an election at the end of September. It is not,
he hinted, a foregone conclusion; he even added that it would be wrong
to "run with the crowd" (what crowd?) and recognise the two regions
simply because Russia had done so.

Mr Lukashenka's diplomatic tiptoeing came as the EU publicly voiced a
desire to reward Belarus for releasing three political prisoners in
August, a move that led to a slight easing of Western sanctions on the
country. Mr Lukashenka seems also to have ruled out the possibility of
hosting Russian nuclear missiles on his soil as part of the Kremlin's
response to America's planned missile defences in Poland and the Czech
Republic. Yet he still rejoiced, in an interview with a Russian daily,
Izvestia, that Moscow had got one over Washington. "The Americans got
kicked in the teeth for the first time in years," he said. "That means
something, you know!"


Tiny Moldova is also anxious. Like Georgia, it has a breakaway enclave,
Transdniestria, that is "protected" by Russian troops. Although Moldova
has no aspirations to join NATO, it is keen to get into the EU. Its
president, Vladimir Voronin, met his Russian counterpart, Dmitry
Medvedev, in late August. Mr Medvedev said there was a "good chance" of
settling the dispute. But after the August war, the Moldovans fear,
rightly, that this might be done only on Russian terms.


Kyiv Post


Ukraine president accuses rivals of "coup d'etat"


September 12, 2008, Reuters

President Viktor Yushchenko accused his two arch rivals on Thursday of
plotting a "coup d'etat" by joining forces to cut his powers and replace
a pro-Western "orange" coalition in parliament.

A coalition of groups loyal to the president and prime minister,
collapsed after Yushchenko's Our Ukraine party walked out last week. It
denounced Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko's tactical voting alliance in
the chamber with the more Russia-friendly party of ex-premier Viktor
Yanukovich.

"The de facto formation in parliament of a new coalition is the
implementation of a political scenario with a sole aim -- to carry out a
coup d'etat through a redistribution of powers," the president's press
service quoted Yushchenko as saying.

Ukrainian politics has been in turmoil since "Orange Revolution" rallies
brought Yushchenko to power in 2004, putting the country at odds with
Moscow over the president's drive to move the country closer to the
West.

Tymoshenko, his fiery ally during the rallies, was named his first prime
minister but was sacked seven months later. She returned to office last
year, but the two again quarrelled.

Tymosehnko's bloc and Yanukovich's Regions Party this month approved
amendments to legislation reducing the president's powers in favour of
the government and parliament.

Yushchenko said he could not understand "a union between a national
bourgeoisie and social populists. It is most difficult to say where this
'marriage' might lead."

LOST MAJORITY

Yanukovich draws much of his support from Russian-speaking eastern
Ukraine. He was backed by Russia in a 2004 presidential election won by
Yushchenko after the Supreme Court ordered a rerun of the ballot on
grounds of vote-rigging.

He has since moderated his backing for Moscow, but remains opposed to
Yushchenko's key foreign policy plank of securing fast-track membership
of NATO.

If the current "orange" coalition, which has anyway lost its majority in
parliament, cannot be rebuilt this weekend, parties have 30 days to form
a new one. Should they fail, the president can call what would be the
third election in as many years.

Yushchenko, in a separate interview with Western newspapers, restated
his resolve to win a NATO Membership Action Plan at a December summit of
the alliance -- despite limited support among Ukrainians and fierce
Russian opposition.

"After events in Georgia, there is only one way to guarantee Ukraine's
independence, territorial integrity and sovereignty -- joining
collective European security structures," he said.

"It is also in NATO's interests to extend peace and stability eastward."

Russia's Foreign Ministry issued a new warning to Kiev to alter its
"unfriendly" stand towards Russia, particularly its "rapid moves to
secure NATO membership" and its denunciations of Moscow's intervention
in Georgia. 

Associated Press

September 11, 2008

KIEV, Ukraine (AP) - The investigation into the unsolved 2004 dioxin
poisoning of President Viktor Yushchenko has been completely
politicized, Ukraine's prime minister said Thursday before she was
questioned by prosecutors.

Yulia Tymoshenko suggested that she has being targeted because she is a
potential competitor to Yushchenko in the 2010 presidential elections.

"When a person who is considered by the president as his rival at
elections is simultaneously accused of state treason and of spying for
the Kremlin, and then Viktor Yushchenko summons me to the prosecutors in
relation to his poisoning, I think that ... no comment is needed," she
told reporters outside the prosecutor's office in Kiev. "Everything is
apparent enough."

Yushchenko accused Tymoshenko of teaming up with the Russia-friendly
opposition Party of Regions in order to sideline him and "ruin the
democratic developments" of Ukraine.

Ukrainian politics have long been marked by bitter feuding between
rivals and even allies.

Last week, Yushchenko called for a new governing coalition and
threatened new elections, accusing Tymoshenko and opposition parties of
attempting a "constitutional coup" by passing legislation that trimmed
presidential powers.

Tymoshenko in turn charged that he was seeking to undermine her before a
presidential vote and vowed that her government would continue working
unhindered.

The two were partners in the 2004 Orange Revolution that catapulted
Yushchenko to the presidency. But their tug-of-war has now ruined their
coalition and put the county on the brink of its third parliamentary
election in as many years.

The poisoning incident came at the height of the 2004 election campaign
and left Yushchenko's face badly disfigured. He has suggested the
poisoning may have been orchestrated by Russia. 

The Wall Street Journal

Campaign '08: Palin, on TV, Says U.S. Should Defend Its Allies 

By Laura Meckler 

12 September 2008

A6

 

WASHINGTON -- Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin said Thursday that Georgia and
Ukraine should be admitted to NATO and that the U.S. should be prepared
to go to war if Russia invades Georgia again.

"I mean, that is the agreement when you are a NATO ally, is if another
country is attacked, you're going to be expected to be called upon and
help," she said in an interview with ABC News. It was her first
interview since being chosen as Sen. John McCain's running mate, aside
for an interview with People magazine about her family.

Gov. Palin also defended her national-security experience by citing her
knowledge of energy issues. She said she hadn't traveled to foreign
countries except Canada and Mexico until last year, when she went to
Kuwait and Germany. She said she has never met a head of state and
dismissed others who have.

"We've got to remember what the desire is in this nation at this time,"
she said. "It is for no more politics as usual, and somebody's big, fat
resume maybe that shows decades and decades in that Washington
establishment, where, yes, they've had opportunities to meet heads of
state."

Gov. Palin has proven to be extremely popular, ginning up enthusiasm on
the trail and helping to lift Sen. McCain's poll numbers. But critics
have questioned whether Gov. Palin is experienced enough to step into
the Oval Office should she need to. And until Thursday, she hadn't
appeared publicly in anything but scripted settings.

On the Russian-Georgian conflict, her comments appeared to go further
than Sen. McCain has in the past. When asked in August whether he would
consider using military force to defend Georgia against Russia, he said,
simply: "The answer to your . . . question is no." He has also
emphasized that while he strongly supports Georgia, he isn't trying to
reignite the Cold War. But his national security adviser, Randy
Scheunemann, said Thursday that like Gov. Palin, Sen. McCain believes
that U.S. military action would be needed if Georgia was a member of
NATO and Russia invaded.

"If John McCain were asked, 'would we act to defend another NATO member
that was invaded?' the answer would be yes. That is the core of NATO --
the Article 5 security guarantee that an attack on one is an attack on
all."

Gov. Palin cited her state's proximity to Russia in explaining her
understanding of the international issues. That prompted Mr. Gibson to
ask her what insight that gave her into what Russia is doing in Georgia.
Gov. Palin replied with warmer comments toward Russia.

"Well, I'm giving you that perspective of how small our world is and how
important it is that we work with our allies to keep good relation with
all of these countries, especially Russia," she said. "We will not
repeat a Cold War. We must have good relationship with our allies,
pressuring, also, helping us to remind Russia that it's in their
benefit, also, a mutually beneficial relationship for us all to be
getting along."

The Bush administration has criticized the Russian invasion, but hasn't
offered to help Georgia rebuild its military. Instead, it has announced
a $1 billion plan to help rebuild civilian infrastructure.

In the interview, Gov. Palin appeared unfamiliar with the Bush doctrine,
the term used to describe the administration's policy that the U.S. has
the right to pre-emptively strike nations that pose national security
threats, even if that threat isn't imminent. Asked by ABC News anchor
Charlie Gibson if she agreed with it, Gov. Palin replied: "In what
respect, Charlie?" He replied by asking for her interpretation. She
said:

"I believe that what President Bush has attempted to do is rid this
world of Islamic extremism, terrorists who are hell-bent on destroying
our nation. There have been blunders along the way, though. There have
been mistakes made. And with new leadership . . . comes opportunity to
do things better."

(Note:  Gov. Palin's support per article above for the admission of
Ukraine and Georgia into NATO is, of course, a position shared by her
running-mate Sen. McCain, as well as by Sen. Obama and his running-mate
Sen. Biden.  It underscores strong and welcome bipartisan consensus
among the candidates on this issue and support for Ukraine's
independence and democracy in general. OD)  

Financial Times

Vanco has no interest in involving Russians in Ukraine project

Published: September 12 2008 

>From Mr Gene Van Dyke.

Sir, In her interview with your reporter ("Collaboration claims are
'comical' ", September 8), Ukraine's prime minister, Yulia Tymoshenko,
claims that "Russian interests were camouflaged by Houston-based Vanco
Energy", the company that I own and operate.

Nothing can be further from the truth. We have no interest in involving
any Russian oil and gas company in our project with the Ukrainian
government - and we will not do so in the future.

In 2005, the Ukrainian government initiated a public tender for offshore
oil and gas exploration in the Black Sea's Prykerchenska Block. We won
that tender fairly in 2006, and in 2007 negotiated and signed a
Production Sharing Agreement with the government. All of this was done
transparently with no Russian oil company involvement.

We were to begin exploration operations this year. But, this past May,
the government violated our agreement by unilaterally and unjustifiably
withdrawing it. What price is the sanctity of contracts in Ukraine? No
country can grow economically unless governments respect contracts
issued by previous governments. In addition, this action delays the
development of Black Sea energy resources, which would in the future
make Ukraine much less dependent on Russian gas and oil. We have made
numerous attempts to meet with the government to try to sort things out,
but to no avail. Now we are pursuing protection of our contractual
rights through arbitration.

Disturbing are indications the Ukrainian government is planning to
invite Russia's Gazprom into the exploration and development of
Ukraine's Black Sea. We have no interest in involving Gazprom in our
project with the government. We simply want to get on with the job of
exploring for hydrocarbons in the Prykerchenska licence, as our contract
gives us the right to do, and which is consistent with the energy
security interests of the Ukrainian people.

Gene Van Dyke,

Founder and President,

Vanco Energy Company,

Houston, TX, US

Eurasia Daily Monitor

September 10, 2008
SURPRISING AND CONTRADICTORY OPINIONS ON THE UKRAINIAN STREETS

A number of recent public opinion polls in Ukraine reveal that regional
differences toward Russia after the war in Georgia remain a factor but
are not as extreme as some media reports present them to be.

A poll conducted from 19 to 22 August by the Taylor Nelson Sofrez
Ukraine agency for the newspaper Zerkalo Tyzhnia showed that in the
conflict in the Caucasus Ukrainian public opinion is divided between
support for Georgia and for Russia. The poll questioned 1,200 people and
has an error margin of not more than 3 percent (Zerkalo Tyzhnia, August
29, 2008).

Of those polled 44.3 percent replied that Russia's actions in Georgia
were "an act of aggression against an independent state," while 41.4
percent believed it was a Russian "peacekeeping operation"; 14.3 percent
did not know or could not answer the question.

Furthermore, a majority of Ukrainians (57.4 percent) believe that
Russia's "emotional reaction" to Georgian "provocations" was
unjustified: 61.5 percent in Central Ukraine hold this view, 60 percent
in Kyiv, 58 percent in the western regions, 56.3 percent in the east,
and 53.5 percent in the south.

Russia is perceived as the aggressor in the conflict by 72.9 percent of
western Ukrainians, 62.5 percent by respondents in the Kyiv region and
by 58 percent of the residents of central Ukraine. In the southern
regions 67.1 percent believed that Russia's role was that of a
peacekeeper while in the Eastern regions, 52.2 percent shared this view.

Only 26.3 percent of respondents believed that Russia used its armed
forces to prevent Georgia from joining NATO.

Significantly, 60 percent of those polled in the 18 and 19 year-old age
group believed that Russia was the aggressor while 52.3 of those over 60
years old believed in the "peacekeeping mission" of the Russian army.

Despite the views by the younger (18-19 year-old) respondents that
Russia was the aggressor in Georgia, when asked about Ukrainian
membership in NATO, only 23.7 percent in this age group agreed that
Ukraine should join the alliance. Overall, 63 percent of those polled by
Taylor Nelson were opposed to Ukraine joining NATO. Only 3.3 percent
were undecided. Some 65 percent of NATO opponents were 60 or more years
old (Zerkalo Tyzhnia, August 29).

When asked about the mission of the Russian Black Sea Feet in Ukraine,
44.1 percent replied that they were convinced that it played a role of
guaranteeing peace and stability in Ukraine. Interestingly enough, this
view is shared not only by those 60 years old and over (48.8 percent)
but also by those 18-19 years old--47.4 percent. Some 33.5 percent of
respondents in the traditionally anti-Russian western regions of the
country shared this view.

Different views about the Russian Black Sea Fleet were, however,
revealed in a public opinion poll conducted by the Ukrainian-based
Institute for Strategic Research from August 21 to 26. Almost half of
the respondents (48.9 percent) supported the removal of the Russian
fleet from Ukrainian territory in 2017, the year the lease expires,
while 32.7 percent of respondents disagreed with this view.

According to this poll, 73.1 percent agree that Ukraine should not
return the Crimean port city of Sevastopol or the Crimean peninsula to
Russia (www.ia-centr.ru/publications/2163/).

The Institute for Strategic Research poll asked the following question:
"The Russian leadership has put forward the condition that in order for
Russia to have good neighborly relations with Ukraine, Ukraine must
renounce its intent to join NATO. What do you think, should Ukraine
agree to this?" While 45.4 percent supported renouncing the goal of NATO
membership, 33.6 percent replied negatively and 21 percent were unable
to answer.

A third poll conducted by the Razumkov Sociological Center in Kyiv found
that the majority of Ukrainians believed that the use of force in
Georgia by both Russia and Georgia was illegal. Only 10.3 percent of
those polled felt that the use of force by Georgia was legitimate while
60.5 percent did not (Ukrayinska Pravda, September 2).

The Taylor Nelson survey found that 47 percent of those questioned
believed that an armed conflict with Russia was possible while 42
percent replied that such a scenario was not only possible, but
probable. Unexpectedly, 44 percent of respondents in eastern Ukraine
shared this view. The majority of younger Ukrainians believe that a war
with Russia is possible while 60 percent of senior citizens aged 60 or
over rejected this possibility.

When asked about the need to increase military preparedness in Ukraine,
37.9 percent (including 32.8 percent in eastern regions) were
categorically for increasing the defense budget. A further 18.5 percent
replied that they were "more for than against" greater defense spending
(Zerkalo Tyzhnia, August 29).

The results of these polls would seem to indicate that the President of
Ukraine, a firm advocate of Ukrainian membership in NATO and a strong
supporter of Georgia, and the opposition Party of Regions are both out
of touch with the views of the majority of the population. Party of
Regions leader Viktor Yanukovych's call to recognize the independence of
South Ossetia and Abkhazia will most likely be rejected by his core base
of supporters in the eastern and southern regions while Yushchenko's
call for Ukrainian membership in NATO has not gained any support after
the Russian-Georgian war.

Only the Yulia Tymoshenko bloc has benefited from recent events by
refusing to endorse the president's pro-Georgian stance and limiting
itself to statements supporting Georgian territorial integrity and by
taking a neutral view of future membership in NATO.

The greatest loser in the eyes of the Ukrainian public appears to be the
Russian leadership, which failed to win overwhelming support from the
allegedly "pro-Russian" eastern and southern regions of Ukraine for its
actions in Georgia. And while the Putin-Medvedev policy appeals to
elderly Ukrainians, many of whom might be nostalgic for the Soviet
Union; younger Ukrainians by and large condemn the Kremlin's aggressive
actions as well as NATO membership. Apparently the up-and-coming
Ukrainian elite will opt for neutrality for their country, while
increasing efforts to join the EU, which is not seen as a traditional
enemy but as a path to prosperity.

--Roman Kupchinsky

 





-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: not available
Type: application/ms-tnef
Size: 26173 bytes
Desc: not available
Url : http://clevelanduzo.org/pipermail/uzonews_clevelanduzo.org/attachments/20080912/77fdf5ef/attachment.bin