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Associated Press

Ukrainian coalition collapses, new coalition talks or early vote ahead 

By OLGA BONDARUK 

Associated Press Writer

461 words

16 September 2008

 

KIEV, Ukraine (AP) - Ukraine's pro-Western coalition collapsed Tuesday,
paving the way for complicated coalition talks or yet another early
parliamentary election.

The nine-month-old alliance composed of parties loyal to Ukrainian
President Viktor Yushchenko and his 2004 Orange Revolution partner,
Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, fell apart following months of
infighting between the two leaders. They have become fierce rivals ahead
of a presidential election scheduled for 2010.

It is the latest setback in the country's four-year-old embrace of
democracy, amid growing tensions with Russia following its war with
Georgia last month. Ukrainian politicians are split between those
condemning the Kremlin and determined to push for membership in NATO,
and those weary of antagonizing their giant neighbor.

"I officially announce the termination of the democratic coalition in
the Verkhovna Rada," parliament speaker Arseniy Yatsenyuk told
lawmakers, referring to the Ukrainian legislature. "It is yet another
democratic challenge, but I hope that together we will overcome this
challenge."

The parliament now has 30 days to form a new coalition; if it fails, a
new election will be called. That would be the third parliamentary vote
in as many years and another blow to hopes for quick reforms in Ukraine
and its integration with the West, which both leaders campaigned for.

The two leaders have engaged in a political tug-of-war since Tymoshenko
regained the premiership in December, accusing each other of corruption
and incompetence and blocking each other's policies.

The final straw came when Yushchenko accused Tymoshenko of acting in the
Kremlin's interests by failing to condemn Russia's war with Georgia.
Tymoshenko fired back that Yushchenko's overwhelming support of Georgia
was dragging Ukraine into the conflict.

Tymoshenko then teamed up with the Russia-friendly opposition to pass a
law that trims presidential powers and boosts her own. Yushchenko called
that a coup attempt, and his party pulled out of the coalition.

The infighting dealt a devastating blow to Yushchenko's popularity and
that of his party.

According to a poll conducted this month by the Kiev International
Sociology Institute, should an election be held, Tymoshenko's party
would get 24 percent, the Russia-friendly Party of Regions would garner
23 percent and Yushchenko's bloc less than 4 percent.

The poll comprised 2,036 respondents across the country and had a margin
of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.

Some analysts predict that if a new coalition can be formed to avoid
elections, it may involve the Party of Regions, making the new
government more friendly toward the Kremlin.

Los Angeles Times

Ukraine is divided on Russia; The ruling coalition is near collapse as
leaders spar over how to treat their newly assertive neighbor. 

Megan K. Stack 

Times Staff Writer

15 September 2008

A-3

KIEV, UKRAINE

They are at each other's throats again, this country's political lions:
the president whose face is pocked from the poison that didn't quite
kill him four years ago, and the prime minister with the golden braid
who once fought alongside him in the name of democracy.

The president's office now calls Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko a
traitor who refuses to speak out against Moscow. She shoots back that
President Viktor Yushchenko is a loose cannon who has antagonized Russia
to the point of endangering Ukraine.

The war in Georgia is over. But the war over the war in Georgia rages
unabated in Ukraine, the former Soviet state that, like Georgia, has
drawn the wrath of Moscow by building ties with the West. The collapse
of this country's ruling coalition is widely expected to become official
this week, the final gasp of a threadbare alliance that has barely hung
together in recent months.

The delicate balance was upended by a widening dispute over how to
respond to a newly aggressive Russia. The political turmoil is, in part,
early jockeying for the 2010 presidential election, but it is also a
clash over the existential angst that bedevils this country, where
identity is stretched awkwardly between Russia and the West.

The war between Russia and Georgia has brought a sense of crisis and
anxiety to the region. Fattened on oil and gas riches, Moscow has made
it plain that it intends to exert power on neighbors formerly part of
the Soviet Union, that it feels justified in demanding "privileged
interests," as Russian President Dmitry Medvedev explained last month.

More than anyplace else, that means Ukraine, bonded to Moscow by deep,
ancient imperial and cultural ties. To the fury of Moscow, Ukraine has
emerged as a close ally of the United States, its leaders berating
Russia as they lobby for membership in the European Union and the North
Atlantic Treaty Organization. But many Ukrainians continue to feel a
strong affection and loyalty toward Russia.

Today, instead of pulling together and steeling for geopolitical
maneuvers, the leaders of Ukraine are mired in internecine squabbles
over what kind of country it should be and which loyalties it should
foster. Like nothing else since the fall of the Soviet Union, the war in
Georgia has laid bare Ukraine's weaknesses.

When Russia sent warplanes, tank columns and thousands of soldiers into
Georgia last month, Yushchenko, long an outspoken critic of Moscow, was
outraged. He flew to Tbilisi, the Georgian capital, to stand in
solidarity with the Caucasus nation's president and imposed restrictions
on Russia's Black Sea fleet, based in Ukraine under a long-standing
agreement.

Tymoshenko, in contrast, drew attention with her silence. The prime
minister dispatched an envoy to Tbilisi and sent humanitarian aid. But
there was no condemnation of Russia, no feisty rhetoric.

The president's office accused her of "high treason and political
corruption" and hinted it would open a criminal case against her.

"I think she struck a deal with the Kremlin. . . ," said Roman Zvarych,
a lawmaker from Yushchenko's party. "You can't have a prime minister of
a country be silent when your sovereign territory is being used as a
base to attack your ally."

Last week, Tymoshenko was abruptly summoned by the prosecutor general
for questioning in the near-fatal dioxin poisoning of Yushchenko in
2004.

The inquiry is nothing but a political ploy, her followers say.

For their part, they say the president has gone too far in criticizing
Moscow. Not only has he whipped up tensions to a dangerous height, they
say, but he also has alienated those Ukrainians who have ethnic and
cultural ties to Russia and who are leery of invoking its wrath.

That view seems to be gaining credibility. Yushchenko's approval ratings
are in the single digits, analysts from all camps say.

"Support for [Georgian President Mikheil] Saakashvili by Yushchenko
angered Russia and woke up that bear that's been sleeping for a long
time," said Hanna Herman, a lawmaker with the Moscow-friendly Party of
Regions. "Now, Ukraine has the worst relations with Russia in the
history of its independence."

Today's Kiev, the capital, is a battle-hardened place long drained of
the pro-democracy, anti-Russia fervor of the 2004 Orange Revolution,
which swept Yushchenko and Tymoshenko to power. The onetime tent city of
Independence Square is a clot of black-clad youth, locked into clinging
embraces, drinking cheap beer and bellowing rock songs.

Kiev hums with politics: local politics, politics for their own sake,
games for stakes of power and cash. Everybody has a press aide. Even the
press aides seem to have press aides. All of them want to talk to the
media, unless they are plotting some new, subtle subterfuge, then they
stay silent.

You get the sense sometimes that in this city, Russia and the West have
been carved down to shadows of themselves, to symbols wielded like
weapons in the ceaseless churn of gladiator-style matches: invoked for
their associations, for the blocs of voters they move, and later
discarded for the same reasons.

Many analysts here believe Ukrainian politics are drifting closer to
Moscow's sway, as evidenced by the prime minister's reticence about
criticizing Russia and the enduring popularity of the pro-Moscow
politician Viktor Yanukovich, a former prime minister whose Party of
Regions holds the most parliamentary votes and who is widely seen as the
third contender in the presidential election.

Some analysts are convinced that Moscow engineered the current crisis to
send Yushchenko into oblivion and forestall Ukraine from joining NATO or
moving closer to Europe.

"All of these changes, Russia had a hand in it . . . to bring people who
are loyal to power," said Vadim Karasyov, director of the Institute of
Global Strategies, a Kiev think tank. "There's no need for them to adopt
the tactics we saw in Georgia. In Ukraine, they can use soft power and
slowly adapt Ukraine to their liking."

Karasyov, who is seen as close to the president, contends that Russia is
on a gradual campaign to reestablish control over Ukraine.

"This is all about changing Ukraine's foreign policy and international
identity," he said. "Everything else is just a consequence." 

AP

Diplomat says US will support Ukraine if threatened 

12 September 2008

 

KIEV, Ukraine (AP) - A senior U.S. diplomat said Friday the United
States would back Ukraine in case of a territorial dispute but Ukraine's
defense minister said his country's role as the main natural gas conduit
to Europe makes a conflict with Russia unlikely.

The recent Russia-Georgia war has aroused concerns in Europe and
ex-Soviet republics such as Ukraine about Moscow's regional ambitions.
The Kremlin has watched warily in recent years as Ukraine and other
former republics have sought closer Western ties, and Moscow vehemently
objects to their joining NATO.

Although Russian leaders insist they recognize Ukraine's borders, some
nationalist politicians have suggested that Russia should regain control
of Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula, a jewel of the Russian empire and home
to a key Russian naval base.

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Fried pledged Friday that the
United States would back Ukraine in a territorial dispute.

"The United States, and I daresay Europe as well, support Ukraine's
independence, its freedom, its democracy, its right to chose its own
future," Fried told reporters after a meeting with his Ukrainian
counterpart.

"Our support for Ukraine has only increased as the result of pressure
and will only increase if there is pressure from other places," Fried
said. "I hope that no one puts Ukraine's territorial integrity into
question."

Fried's remarks echo comments made last week by Vice President Dick
Cheney. During a visit to the ex-Soviet Republic, Cheney said the U.S.
has "a deep and abiding interest" in the country's "well-being and
security."

However, Ukraine's defense minister said during a visit to Denmark
Friday that a war with Moscow was unlikely because Ukraine is such an
important link in Europe's energy supply.

Asked about a potential military conflict with Russia, Yuri Yekhanurov
said he didn't "believe something like this might happen in the future."

A conflict would "have an influence on not only Ukraine but the whole
world," Yekhanurov said, noting that 80 percent of the natural gas
exported to Europe passes through Ukraine

Eurasia Daily Monitor

RUSSIAN PASSPORTS AS MOSCOW'S GEOPOLITICAL TOOL

September 15, 2008

The official protest by the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) on
September 11 over the allegedly "unfriendly" attitudes of the Ukrainian
authorities to Russia was met by a stern response on the same day by
Ukraine's Foreign Ministry (www.mfa.gov.ua). Russia's MFA protested
about President Viktor Yushchenko's support for Georgia, including
supplying "heavy military hardware"; Ukraine's drive to join NATO
"against the will of the Ukrainian people"; "attempts by the Ukrainian
authorities to reconsider our common history in an anti-Russian spirit";
and the standard complaint about official hostility to the Russian
language.

Ukraine's response pointed to Russia's inability, despite nearly two
decades of Ukrainian independence, to accept Ukraine as an "independent
state." Ukraine's MFA also described Ukraine as "under no circumstances
belonging to the so-called 'privileged interests' of any country."

The Russian protest also complained about the "practice of banning
Russian deputies and eminent politicians from entering Ukraine." The
following day Russian Duma deputy Viktor Vodolatsky was refused entry
into Ukraine to attend a coordinating council meeting of Cossack Hetmans
(leaders) from Ukraine, Russia, Belarus, and Moldova's Trans-Dniestr
region. The week before, Russian political technologist Sergei Markov
was refused entry into Ukraine.

Russia has retaliated by creating a long list of Ukrainian politicians
and businessmen banned from entering Russia. It includes the head of
NUNS Vyacheslav Kyrylenko, Petro Yushchenko (the president's brother and
a NUNS deputy), the governors of Kyiv and Kharkiv, BYuT head of the
parliamentary committeeon foreign affairs, heads of the armaments
company Ukrspetsexport, and others (www.korrespondent.com.ua, September
15).

Ukraine's MFA warned "that attempts by Russia to destabilize the
situation in Ukraine through fifth columnists who for some reason
position themselves as the 'healthy political forces of the country'
have no prospects." The accusations and the very tone of the exchange
are at odds with Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's assurances that "Crimea
is not disputable territory" (German ARD television, August 29).

Leon Aron of the Washington-based American Enterprise Institute warned
in The Wall Street Journal (September 10) that "Russia's Next Target
Could Be Ukraine." The Moscow city council is providing $34 million in
support of "compatriots" abroad.

Aron warns of a scenario in which Russia takes control over-night of the
port of Sevastopol, which might be "impossible to reverse without a
large-scale war." The EU's unwillingness to deal with Russia's new
assertiveness since August 8 has demonstrated the vacuous nature of its
European Common Foreign and Security Policy. If the EU has permitted
Russia to get away with de facto annexation of South Ossetia and
Abkhazia, why would it react any differently to a Russian annexation of
the Crimea?

The September 9 EU-Ukraine summit threw "away a golden opportunity to
stabilize [Ukraine's] eastern frontier and encourage political and
economic reform in Kiev" (Financial Times, September 10). The EU
"foolishly ducked a chance to throw the country a political and economic
lifeline" (The Economist, September 11).

Two arguments why West European states, such as Germany, Italy, and
France, have not supported NATO or EU enlargement to Ukraine and Georgia
do not stand up. First, Germany, Italy, and France do not support either
NATO or EU enlargement, although it is only the former that is usually
considered likely to "antagonize" Russia. Second, energy links to Russia
are not a factor in appeasing Russia. France, Italy, and Germany are
only reliant for 26 percent, 30 percent, and 39 percent, respectively,
of their gas imports from Russia. Poland, Lithuania, Bulgaria, and
Slovakia, which support NATO and EU enlargement to Ukraine, import
respectively 61 percent, 84 percent, 94 percent, and 100 percent of
their gas from Russia.

Ukrainian authorities have become highly sensitive to the threat of a
Russian policy of destabilization since the Kremlin invasion of Georgia.
One particular area of concern is the issuing of Russian passports to
Ukrainian citizens in the light of Russia's pretext of coming to the
"defense" of Russian citizens in the two frozen conflicts where Russia
had illegally distributed passports.

Ukraine's Minister of Foreign Affairs Volodymyr Ohryzko said that
Ukraine's repeated protests to the Russian consulate in Simferopol over
its distributing of passports continue to be ignored. Ohryzko announced
that the Security Service, prosecutor's office, Interior Ministry, and
MFA were now investigating the problem (www.mfa.gov.ua, September 6).
Ukraine's Ambassador to Slovakia Inna Ohnivets, who previously worked on
this issue, told of repeated Ukrainian demands to the Russian Consulate
in the Crimea to halt the practice (www.bbc.co.uk/Ukrainian, August 28).

A week after Ohryzko's comments, 34 inhabitants of Sevastopol who
maintain dual citizenship had their Ukrainian citizenship withdrawn.
Further investigations have located 1,595 inhabitants of Sevastopol,
primarily serving on the Black Sea Fleet, who have dual citizenship,
which is banned by Ukrainian law (www.pravda.com.ua, September 13).

Both political forces in the Orange coalition have raised the issue of
the distribution of Russian passports as a threat to Ukrainian security.
Our Ukraine-Self Defense deputy Volodymyr Stretovych warned that
increasing the number of Russian citizens in the Crimea would give
Russia, as in Georgia, a pretext to come to the "defense" of its
citizens (www.nuns.com.ua, August 13, 15). Deputy Nuns faction leader
Borys Tarasiuk described the distribution of passports as Russia's
"secret aggression against Ukrainian citizens." Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc
deputies have drawn up a draft law making the obtaining of dual
citizenship a criminal offence (www.pravda.com.ua, September 9).

The problem Ukrainian authorities are faced with is that they do not
have concrete data on the number of Russian passports distributed in the
Crimea. During Leonid Kuchma's decade in office from 1994 to 2004 the
Ukrainian authorities turned a blind eye to the illegal practice.
Estimates of the number of Russian passport holders in the Crimea range
from a low of 6,000 (Newsweek, August 23) to 100,000 (Los Angeles Times,
August 25).

Consequently, the EU is ignoring the fact that the consequences for
European security of Russian destabilization in the Crimea would be far
more severe than that of Russia's invasion of Georgia.

--Taras Kuzio






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